In Los Angeles…
Game 1
Probable Starters: Clayton Kershaw (LAD) vs. Jacob deGrom (NYM)
Kershaw's stats: 2.13 ERA; 33 GS; 232.2 IP; 301 K's; 0.88 WHIP
deGrom's stats: 2.54 ERA; 30 GS; 191.0 IP; 205 K's; 0.98 WHIP
Matchup Analysis
Clearly, the Dodgers have the edge in this matchup. Both pitchers have been top 5 NL starters this season, but Kershaw's statistics easily out-shine deGrom's in every area. Kershaw started 2 games against the Mets this season (1 home, 1 away), pitching 16 innings and only giving up 1 earned run, while deGrom only started one game against the Dodgers this season (at home), pitching 7.2 innings and giving up no runs. So, both pitchers have been successful this season while pitching against their opponent.
But, Kershaw's playoff career has been unsuccessful so far, especially considering that he's a 3-time Cy Young Award winner. He has started 8 games and pitched in 11 total with an ERA of 5.12. He's been known to choke in the postseason when the season is on the line. Since deGrom doesn't have any postseason experience, he obviously doesn't carry that notoriety with him. So, if Kershaw continues with his postseason failures the Mets should be able to take advantage.
Overall, the Dodgers are the favorites for Game 1, but expect a great pitching matchup as Kershaw tries to show that he can deal in the postseason and as deGrom makes his postseason debut following a stellar season on the mound.
Game 2
Probable Starters: Zack Greinke (LAD) vs. Noah Syndergaard (NYM)
Greinke's stats: 1.66 ERA; 32 GS; 222.2 IP; 200 K's; 0.84 WHIP
Syndergaard's stats: 3.24 ERA; 24 GS; 150.0 IP; 166 K's; 1.05 WHIP
Matchup Analysis
Once again, this is the Dodgers game to lose. Greinke led the Majors in ERA and is considered by many to be the frontrunner for this year's Cy Young Award. Syndergaard has had a very successful rookie campaign and should finish second or third in the Rookie of the Year voting. Still, he doesn't stack up to Greinke. But then again, in baseball, any team can beat any team at any time, so if Synder brings his A-game, this game could be tight.
One negative for Syndergaard is that he hasn't been particularly good during away games. He owns a 4.23 ERA on the road (as opposed to his 2.46 home ERA).
Judging by his 3.63 career postseason ERA, Greinke has had more postseason success than Kershaw has had, but still not the stellar numbers you would expect from a pitcher of his caliber. Like Kershaw he'll be trying to prove that he can perform in the postseason, while Syndergaard, like deGrom, makes his postseason debut (none of the Mets 4 postseason starters have ever pitched in the postseason).
Again, the Dodgers have the edge in the pitching matchup for Game 2, but then the series moves to New York.
To New York…
Game 3
Probable Starters: Matt Harvey (NYM) vs. Brett Anderson (LAD)
Harvey's stats: 2.71 ERA; 29 GS; 189.1 IP; 188 K's; 1.02 WHIP
Anderson's stats: 3.69 ERA; 31 GS; 180.1 IP; 116 K's; 1.33 WHIP
Matchup Analysis
This time, the matchup is not in the Dodgers' favor. Matt Harvey placed 8th in the majors in ERA with 2.71 while Anderson was good/decent with a 3.69 ERA.
In Harvey's 2 starts against the Dodgers this season he pitched to a 3.75 ERA (5 ER in 12 IP), while Anderson didn't even face the Mets. Take those stats as you may, but Harvey's somewhat decent outings against the Dodgers in no way overshadows the fact that Harvey is a better pitcher than Anderson.
Harvey has no postseason experience, while Anderson has only pitched in 2 postseason games in his career (with an admittedly good 1.42 ERA), so there is not many conclusions you can draw from that except that Anderson has been successful in the small amount of playoff playing time he has received.
To conclude Game 3, the Mets have the edge. Anderson is a solid player while Harvey is one of the most competitive players in the game.
Game 4 if necessary
Probable Starters: Steven Matz (NYM) vs. Alex Wood or Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
Matz's stats: 2.27 ERA; 6 GS; 35.2 IP; 34 K's; 1.23 WHIP
*Wood's stats: 3.84 ERA; 32 GS; 189.2 IP; 139 K's; 1.36 WHIP
*Those numbers are Wood's total stats this year. Wood was traded mid-season from the Braves to the Dodgers. His stats while on the Dodgers are as follows: 4.35 ERA; 12 GS; 70.1 IP; 49 K's; 1.27 WHIP
Matchup Analysis
First of all, this game could potentially not happen (if 1 team wins all of the first 3 games), and second of all, each team's probable starter is cloaked in mystery. Matz is currently recovering from a minor back injury. If he isn't ready to pitch by this time, then I assume Bartolo Colon would take his spot. For the Dodgers, it is unsure at this point whom they will choose to pitch: Wood or Kershaw. This choice depends on how Kershaw pitched in game 1 and how many games the Dodgers have won in the series and if they believe it's smart to let Kershaw start on short rest. If Wood does start, it'll be a matchup between two 24-year old lefties with one of the team's seasons on the line. Matz has almost no major league experience, while Wood has a decent amount, although Matz is considered the higher-ceiling pitcher (meaning he'll probably develop into a better starter).
In Matz's only appearance against the Dodgers this season, he pitched 6 shutout innings in LA. It was only his second big league start.
Wood was not so successful this season against the Mets. He started two games against them (1 home, 1 away). He pitched a total of 13 innings and allowed 7 earned runs (4.85 ERA). However, both of these starts came while he was a Brave and not a Dodger.
Matz, of course, has no postseason experience, while Wood has only pitched 3.1 innings in 2 appearances (without giving up a run) in the postseason.
There's no way to decide who has the edge here, since a few different scenarios could play out, but either way it should probably be a battle between two lefties. Even if Kershaw does start, his efficiency could be down, considering he would be operating on short rest. I think it's pretty likely that if the Mets are ahead in the series 2-1, Kershaw would start against Matz in order to save his team's season.
Game 5 if necessary
Probable Starters: Clayton Kershaw or Zack Greinke (LAD) vs. Jacob deGrom (NYM)
Matchup Analysis
If the series makes it this far, deGrom would almost definitely start this game. Greinke would start if Kershaw pitched the 4th game; if Kershaw hasn't started a second game by this time, then he would most likely start Game 5 and face off against deGrom. There's not really much more to discuss here since I've already talked about them above. If the series goes this far, this will be an incredibly intense game where two top MLB pitchers face off to send their respective team to the NLCS.
Conclusion
While the Dodgers had the better regular season record and may be a slightly stronger team going into the NLDS, this series is going to be tight. If the regular season was any indicator, we're going to witness some great pitching duels. It could very well go into a 5th game in LA in which playoff hopes are put into the hands of great starters.
The Mets could put themselves in a very good position if they just win one of the first two games in LA before heading to New York. If they are able to do that, the Mets would be in control of the series. With Harvey starting game 3 against Anderson and Matz starting game 4 against either Wood or an un-rested Kershaw, the Mets have a very good chance to win both games. So, if the Mets can just beat Kershaw or Greinke in LA, they will have the upper hand in the fight to get to the NLCS.
In this post, I was only taking into account the starting pitching match-ups, so there will obviously be other factors that will decide how the series plays out. That being said, with starting pitching being, in my opinion, the most important factor, if the Mets can produce very effectively in that department, an NLCS appearance should be in their future.
LGM
Matchup Analysis
Clearly, the Dodgers have the edge in this matchup. Both pitchers have been top 5 NL starters this season, but Kershaw's statistics easily out-shine deGrom's in every area. Kershaw started 2 games against the Mets this season (1 home, 1 away), pitching 16 innings and only giving up 1 earned run, while deGrom only started one game against the Dodgers this season (at home), pitching 7.2 innings and giving up no runs. So, both pitchers have been successful this season while pitching against their opponent.
But, Kershaw's playoff career has been unsuccessful so far, especially considering that he's a 3-time Cy Young Award winner. He has started 8 games and pitched in 11 total with an ERA of 5.12. He's been known to choke in the postseason when the season is on the line. Since deGrom doesn't have any postseason experience, he obviously doesn't carry that notoriety with him. So, if Kershaw continues with his postseason failures the Mets should be able to take advantage.
Overall, the Dodgers are the favorites for Game 1, but expect a great pitching matchup as Kershaw tries to show that he can deal in the postseason and as deGrom makes his postseason debut following a stellar season on the mound.
Game 2
Probable Starters: Zack Greinke (LAD) vs. Noah Syndergaard (NYM)
Greinke's stats: 1.66 ERA; 32 GS; 222.2 IP; 200 K's; 0.84 WHIP
Syndergaard's stats: 3.24 ERA; 24 GS; 150.0 IP; 166 K's; 1.05 WHIP
Matchup Analysis
Once again, this is the Dodgers game to lose. Greinke led the Majors in ERA and is considered by many to be the frontrunner for this year's Cy Young Award. Syndergaard has had a very successful rookie campaign and should finish second or third in the Rookie of the Year voting. Still, he doesn't stack up to Greinke. But then again, in baseball, any team can beat any team at any time, so if Synder brings his A-game, this game could be tight.
One negative for Syndergaard is that he hasn't been particularly good during away games. He owns a 4.23 ERA on the road (as opposed to his 2.46 home ERA).
Judging by his 3.63 career postseason ERA, Greinke has had more postseason success than Kershaw has had, but still not the stellar numbers you would expect from a pitcher of his caliber. Like Kershaw he'll be trying to prove that he can perform in the postseason, while Syndergaard, like deGrom, makes his postseason debut (none of the Mets 4 postseason starters have ever pitched in the postseason).
Again, the Dodgers have the edge in the pitching matchup for Game 2, but then the series moves to New York.
To New York…
Game 3
Probable Starters: Matt Harvey (NYM) vs. Brett Anderson (LAD)
Harvey's stats: 2.71 ERA; 29 GS; 189.1 IP; 188 K's; 1.02 WHIP
Anderson's stats: 3.69 ERA; 31 GS; 180.1 IP; 116 K's; 1.33 WHIP
Matchup Analysis
This time, the matchup is not in the Dodgers' favor. Matt Harvey placed 8th in the majors in ERA with 2.71 while Anderson was good/decent with a 3.69 ERA.
In Harvey's 2 starts against the Dodgers this season he pitched to a 3.75 ERA (5 ER in 12 IP), while Anderson didn't even face the Mets. Take those stats as you may, but Harvey's somewhat decent outings against the Dodgers in no way overshadows the fact that Harvey is a better pitcher than Anderson.
Harvey has no postseason experience, while Anderson has only pitched in 2 postseason games in his career (with an admittedly good 1.42 ERA), so there is not many conclusions you can draw from that except that Anderson has been successful in the small amount of playoff playing time he has received.
To conclude Game 3, the Mets have the edge. Anderson is a solid player while Harvey is one of the most competitive players in the game.
Game 4 if necessary
Probable Starters: Steven Matz (NYM) vs. Alex Wood or Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
Matz's stats: 2.27 ERA; 6 GS; 35.2 IP; 34 K's; 1.23 WHIP
*Wood's stats: 3.84 ERA; 32 GS; 189.2 IP; 139 K's; 1.36 WHIP
*Those numbers are Wood's total stats this year. Wood was traded mid-season from the Braves to the Dodgers. His stats while on the Dodgers are as follows: 4.35 ERA; 12 GS; 70.1 IP; 49 K's; 1.27 WHIP
Matchup Analysis
First of all, this game could potentially not happen (if 1 team wins all of the first 3 games), and second of all, each team's probable starter is cloaked in mystery. Matz is currently recovering from a minor back injury. If he isn't ready to pitch by this time, then I assume Bartolo Colon would take his spot. For the Dodgers, it is unsure at this point whom they will choose to pitch: Wood or Kershaw. This choice depends on how Kershaw pitched in game 1 and how many games the Dodgers have won in the series and if they believe it's smart to let Kershaw start on short rest. If Wood does start, it'll be a matchup between two 24-year old lefties with one of the team's seasons on the line. Matz has almost no major league experience, while Wood has a decent amount, although Matz is considered the higher-ceiling pitcher (meaning he'll probably develop into a better starter).
In Matz's only appearance against the Dodgers this season, he pitched 6 shutout innings in LA. It was only his second big league start.
Wood was not so successful this season against the Mets. He started two games against them (1 home, 1 away). He pitched a total of 13 innings and allowed 7 earned runs (4.85 ERA). However, both of these starts came while he was a Brave and not a Dodger.
Matz, of course, has no postseason experience, while Wood has only pitched 3.1 innings in 2 appearances (without giving up a run) in the postseason.
There's no way to decide who has the edge here, since a few different scenarios could play out, but either way it should probably be a battle between two lefties. Even if Kershaw does start, his efficiency could be down, considering he would be operating on short rest. I think it's pretty likely that if the Mets are ahead in the series 2-1, Kershaw would start against Matz in order to save his team's season.
Game 5 if necessary
Probable Starters: Clayton Kershaw or Zack Greinke (LAD) vs. Jacob deGrom (NYM)
Matchup Analysis
If the series makes it this far, deGrom would almost definitely start this game. Greinke would start if Kershaw pitched the 4th game; if Kershaw hasn't started a second game by this time, then he would most likely start Game 5 and face off against deGrom. There's not really much more to discuss here since I've already talked about them above. If the series goes this far, this will be an incredibly intense game where two top MLB pitchers face off to send their respective team to the NLCS.
Conclusion
While the Dodgers had the better regular season record and may be a slightly stronger team going into the NLDS, this series is going to be tight. If the regular season was any indicator, we're going to witness some great pitching duels. It could very well go into a 5th game in LA in which playoff hopes are put into the hands of great starters.
The Mets could put themselves in a very good position if they just win one of the first two games in LA before heading to New York. If they are able to do that, the Mets would be in control of the series. With Harvey starting game 3 against Anderson and Matz starting game 4 against either Wood or an un-rested Kershaw, the Mets have a very good chance to win both games. So, if the Mets can just beat Kershaw or Greinke in LA, they will have the upper hand in the fight to get to the NLCS.
In this post, I was only taking into account the starting pitching match-ups, so there will obviously be other factors that will decide how the series plays out. That being said, with starting pitching being, in my opinion, the most important factor, if the Mets can produce very effectively in that department, an NLCS appearance should be in their future.
LGM
